Recent data shows that the Canadian automotive sector has taken a hit due to the current tariff situation created by the U.S. administration. We may soon have another concrete example of that.
According to prominent industry analysts, General Motors is on a path to end production of the light-duty Chevrolet Silverado 1500 at its assembly plant in Oshawa, Ontario before the end of 2026. Barring the introduction of production of another model, that would leave only the heavy-duty variants of the Silverado coming out of the plant. That would entail a sharp decline in output, and thus employment at Oshawa Assembly.
A steep decline in volume
As reported by Automotive New Canada, such a step by GM would sharply accelerate a decline in production that started some time ago. According to the outlet, Oshawa assembled 152,190 pickups in 2024 and 125,758 units in 2025. The plant's momentum slowed further in early 2026 when GM eliminated its third shift, laying off some 700 hourly workers .
Keeping the lights on, but just
Sam Fiorani, VP of global vehicle forecasting at Pennsylvania-based AutoForecast Solutions, estimated that completely removing the Silverado 1500 would compress the plant's annual output to just 50,000 heavy-duty vehicles. The firms’ CEO Joe McCabe noted that an exclusive focus on the Silverado HD would inevitably force the facility to downscale from two shifts to a single shift. “It's enough to keep the lights on,” McCabe observed, pointing out that total demand for heavy-duty pickups remains structurally limited.
Trade friction and strategic shifts
While GM has not cited direct links, it’s difficult not to pin the scaling back of Canadian operations on the harsh current tariff environment afflicting the North American auto industry. Since the current U.S. administration took power in January 2025, American tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles have heavily penalized local manufacturing. This trade friction has already prompted GM to idle its CAMI Assembly plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, where production of the BrightDrop electric van was halted due to sluggish sales.
Meanwhile, the automaker is aggressively ramping up its domestic U.S. footprint. The automaker rolled out a massive $4 billion USD investment across several American assembly plants, and it has boosted its heavy-duty truck output in Flint, Michigan, to a six-day workweek and expanded its light-duty truck capacity in Indiana.
Conspicuously, when GM unveiled the next-generation 2027 Chevrolet Silverado 1500, executives broke with industry tradition by declining to specify which manufacturing facilities would build the redesigned pickup. The current light-duty generation is built in Oshawa but also in Indiana and Mexico and Oshawa.
Official denials and union anxiety
GM Canada is actively disputing talk of an imminent production scaleback. Company spokesperson Jennifer Wright stated that employment and shift structures are expected to be retained as the plant transitions to next-generation truck production. This transition is backed by a $343 million CAD investment in Oshawa, which includes $63 million CAD earmarked to stamp major body panels.
However, the corporate timeline remains ambiguous; while the next-generation Silverado 1500 launches this year, the redesigned heavy-duty models are not due until 2029.
The lack of explicit product confirmation has understandably stoked deep anxieties at Unifor Local 222, which represents more than 2,000 hourly workers at the facility. Local President Jeff Gray described the workforce as “extremely concerned” about job stability. Contract negotiations between the union and the automaker are scheduled to begin this summer, a process further complicated by broader geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the future of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
While dark clouds continue to mass in the skies above Oshawa, over in Ste-Catharines there are sightings of silver linings. GM has made a substantial $691 million CAD commitment to its propulsion plant at that Ontario location, where it will build the brand's next-generation V8 engines. In GM’s view, that serves as definitive proof that the automaker does not plan to abandon its Canadian manufacturing footprint – at least not entirely.