According to a study published by the International Transport Forum at the OECD, programs designed to encourage drivers to get rid of their old vehicles fell short of their potential to deliver on environmental and safety objectives.
Researchers examined three of the largest programs introduced in France, Germany and the United States, investigating the impact of 2.8 million transactions in which old cars were traded for new, more efficient vehicles.
In the US, the CARS initiative (formerly known as Cash for Clunkers), enjoyed tremendous success but focused more on fuel economy than emission reduction. Meanwhile, in Germany, a similar program yielded disappointing results. Drivers traded in their small cars to buy mid-sized models, thereby jeopardizing efforts to reduce emissions.
In France, the scheme used a CO2 limit to guide new vehicle purchase and retire very old gas-guzzlers, but a large number of people turned to diesel-powered cars, which had an incidence on NOx emissions and overall cost effectiveness.
While all three schemes helped reduce CO2 emissions, the monetized value of that impact was quite small: less than $7 million in the US and less than $14 million in France and Germany. The monetized impact on NOx emissions appears to besignificantly higher, reaching about $430 million both in the US and Germany, and $144 million in France.
With respect to road safety, the car renewal programs are estimated to avoid 40 fatalities and 2,800 serious injuries in the US. For Germany, the estimated impact is 60 deaths and 6,100 serious injuries avoided. France is somewhat lower at 330 fewer serious injuries, 20 of which would be fatalities.
“Subsidies for car renewal can bring real benefits only if they are carefully designed”, said Jack Short, Secretary General of the International Transport Forum. “Here, a best practices approach is key. We hope that comparative studies like this one will help countries pondering similar schemes to find the right solutions for them.”
Researchers examined three of the largest programs introduced in France, Germany and the United States, investigating the impact of 2.8 million transactions in which old cars were traded for new, more efficient vehicles.
In the US, the CARS initiative (formerly known as Cash for Clunkers), enjoyed tremendous success but focused more on fuel economy than emission reduction. Meanwhile, in Germany, a similar program yielded disappointing results. Drivers traded in their small cars to buy mid-sized models, thereby jeopardizing efforts to reduce emissions.
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In France, the scheme used a CO2 limit to guide new vehicle purchase and retire very old gas-guzzlers, but a large number of people turned to diesel-powered cars, which had an incidence on NOx emissions and overall cost effectiveness.
While all three schemes helped reduce CO2 emissions, the monetized value of that impact was quite small: less than $7 million in the US and less than $14 million in France and Germany. The monetized impact on NOx emissions appears to besignificantly higher, reaching about $430 million both in the US and Germany, and $144 million in France.
With respect to road safety, the car renewal programs are estimated to avoid 40 fatalities and 2,800 serious injuries in the US. For Germany, the estimated impact is 60 deaths and 6,100 serious injuries avoided. France is somewhat lower at 330 fewer serious injuries, 20 of which would be fatalities.
“Subsidies for car renewal can bring real benefits only if they are carefully designed”, said Jack Short, Secretary General of the International Transport Forum. “Here, a best practices approach is key. We hope that comparative studies like this one will help countries pondering similar schemes to find the right solutions for them.”