Nissan S16 rwd.. hum!!!!!
Why Nissan Should Resurrect Project S16: A Review of Market Demographics and Competitive Standing
Nissan recently announced the official decision NOT to build the successor to the S15, which would have brought back the tradition of a sporty, affordable platform that could directly compete with the Toyota FR-S, Subaru BRZ, and Hyundai Genesis Coupe.
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As we reported previously, the “Mini-Z” project (internally designated the “New Small Sports”) had already been mostly developed, but was shelved approximately a year ago. At the time, we were told it had simply been placed on hold in order to focus on preparation for a multi-car blitz of revisions (including the new Sentra, Altima, Pathfinder, and Rogue).
The planned concept would have slotted in just beneath the base 370Z, but priced similarly to the Subaru BRZ.
However, we’re now learning that plans for a rear-drive coupe with a high performance 4-cylinder engine never really had a chance with upper management. This clearly won’t sit well with the legions of Nissan loyalists who have been clamoring for a 6MT FR platform since 1998.
Automakers scrap ideas all the time, but it’s the company’s justification of this abandonment that leaves us scratching our heads.
According to Nissan Executive Vice President Andy Palmer, the Nissan Juke covers that demographic just fine. As we’ve long suspected, volume, not brand loyalty or enthusiasm, is the driving force behind this decision. At 78,000 Nissan Jukes sold in the US since its introduction, apparently that’s enough sales to risk disappointing the Nissan faithful.
Says Mr. Palmer, “Gen Y and Gen Z is less interested in that kind of execution of a sports car. For a younger generation, [the Juke] is a much more profound way of going to market.” Palmer added that the Nismo variant of the Juke would fill that void perfectly: “The decision to go to Juke Nismo, lending that kind of performance to that kind of car is consciously our decision to get at those enthusiastic young, sports-oriented type of customers – We think the [Juke and Juke Nismo] is a much more relevant execution for them.”
Mr. Palmer was asked if the successful sales of the Toyobaru twins were proof that Nissan should have continued with Project S16. In response, Mr. Palmer asked which customers were buying the FR-S and BRZ. He went on to explain that these customers are in their late 20s and early 30s (the S16′s target demographic)… Generation Y and the cusp of Generation Z… “They’re not as interested in cars like the FR-S as previous generations were – That generation has a different attitude towards sporty performance and a different attitude to life than you or I do.”
Unfortunately for those of us who thought Nissan was finally starting to get “in touch” with its consumer base across the model lineup, they’ve shown they’re plenty happy with the status quo.
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First of all, I’m not about to assert that I’m any more skilled at projecting new car sales than the executive VP of Japan’s second-largest car company. However, after supporting the brand for over a decade, through thick and thin, I think I’m qualified to speak as an enthusiast. Further, after owning 22 Nissan-built vehicles, spanning from 1960 to 2009, I’m fairly familiar with the past and present lineups (and their resultant successes and failures). Nissan used to make the best RWD coupes in the world. So, for an Executive VP to claim that younger buyers have little interest in a manual trans, front-engine, rear-drive, affordable car is similar to someone saying in 1996, “What is this ‘drifting’ nonsense? It’ll never last.” Nothing could be further from the truth.
Let’s dissect Mr. Palmer’s position on the matter. It’s well known in the web world that trying to pin down the likes and dislikes of a fickle, diverse, and “scattered” demographic such as Gen-Y and Gen-Z is like trying to herd cats. However, I’m a Gen-Xer who spends 90% of his waking hours with, and around, Gen Y (roughly, those born between 1984 and 2000) and Gen Z (generally those born between 1995 and 2010).
The BRZ and FR-S Are Not Targeted Towards Gen Y and Z:
Mr. Palmer asserts that Gen Y and Z are buying the FR-S and BRZ. It’s simply not true. Generation Y, right now, is between 12 and 28 years of age. Assuming everyone in Generation Y starts driving at 17, only two-thirds of Generation Y is old enough to have a license, and I’d bet a paycheck that there’s not a lot of twenty-somethings buying brand new cars. So, Generation Y is off the table as a potential “target demographic”. Generation Z? Don’t be silly. They’re between 2 and 17 years of age. In fact, any rational discussion of car buying trends shouldn’t even consider Gen Z unless you’re planning ahead for the 2030 model year. So we can scratch that off the list – We’re clearly not talking about Generation Y and Z – they’re simply not old enough. If your Product Planners are targeting Generation Y and Z, they have no business working in the automotive industry…yet.
Next, Mr. Palmer states the Juke was “consciously [chosen] to get at those enthusiastic, sports-oriented customers.” While that may be true, it’s not working. There’s no waiting list to purchase a Juke, and sales in 2012 have been anemic in the U.S. There’s a bigger problem with this line of thinking: the Honda Element was supposed to target this market, too. Guess what? The median age of Element buyers is 52. That means people who were, during the Element’s production span, born between 1950 and 1959. Wow.
Well, that’s because the Element was boring. Ok, I’ll give you that. How about the Kia Soul? The average age of a Kia Soul owner is 50. Apparently, rapping hamsters in saggy pants didn’t help reach the youth market. How about the hip-to-be-square Scion xB? A bunch of 42 year olds bought it. And if that wasn’t enough to convince the bean-counters at Nissan, let’s look at our very own Nissan Cube (I own one). The average age of a Cube buyer is a comparatively grizzled 46 years old. Instead of a sound system, it should have handrails, waterproof seats and a Geritol dispenser.
Getting back to the Juke… Despite its fun image, as of this writing, the average age of a Nissan Juke buyer is 40 – popular among young childless couples and older empty nesters. I think we can all agree that “targeting” a certain demographic is a hit-or-miss proposition, even for people who are well-paid to KNOW such things.
Mr. Palmer contends that FR-S and BRZ buyers are “in their late 20′s or early 30′s.” This is inaccurate. The numbers aren’t out yet for the FR-S and the BRZ. But when they start filtering in, let’s not act surprised when we see that they’re being primarily bought by the 30-45 age bracket. After the lessons of the Element, Soul, xB, Cube, and yes, even the Juke, this should be a no-brainer for every market analyst, product strategist and accountant in Nissan North America.
At best, the FR-S and BRZ are being bought by the tail-end of Generation X. According to a very informal poll of POTENTIAL FR-S and BRZ buyers, conducted on a FR-S / BRZ online forum, 24.3% of them were between 18 and 25. 49.6% were between 25 and 35, and 26.1% were between 35 and 45. Considering forum use in general tapers off around 35 years of age, those numbers are most certainly skewed towards the low end – and yet 76% of respondents were OVER 25. Based on my own knowledge of car buyers, I don’t know anyone under 30 driving a FR-S or BRZ. If they are, they didn’t buy it. Here’s why:
Here’s your “market research”: Listen to those of us who are between 28 and 45 who WILL buy a new car in the next year or two. We’re enthusiasts. We’re smart people. We know our stuff, and we love our Nissans.
