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Voici un peu de lecture pour bien débuter la semaine et mettre la situation mondiale de l'huile en perspective. Peut-être un peu biaisé par bouts mais inquiétant tout de même. Bonne lecture.
Question piège...
À combien voyez-vous le litre à la pompe dans 5 ans?
$0.90/litre ou $2.00/litre???
Dear Energy Daily reader:
Hustle. It's a word we know as an exhortation to action, as a virtue, and as a synonym for making ends meet at all costs.
Earth at the beginning of the 21st century requires more hustle than any other place or time known to mankind, and everybody is hustling for the same thing -- energy.
Without energy, nations die a Hobbesian death. With energy, nations live.
Welcome to the Inaugural Issue of Energy Daily
Call it what you will. Peak oil. Oil depletion. The end of the oil age. Or just man in the state of nature.
Regardless of the word or phrase, we're standing at a historic moment. Worldwide, pools of underground oil and natural gas are drying up after millions of years of formation and only 150 years of extraction.
The result is a supply and demand relationship unlike any the modern consumer market has seen.
During the past year, the average price of oil increased 33 percent almost matching the 34 percent increase of 2004. If one wants to think of peak oil just as steadily increasing prices, then we are clearly on our way. Since 2001, oil prices have nearly tripled.
Need more good news?
Okay. How's this.
The world is consuming 84 million or so barrels of oil every day. By 2015, it's estimated that the world will consume 103 million barrels of oil per day.
That's a net gain in consumption of 19 million barrels per day. Still with me? Good.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producing nation, pumps out 9.7 million barrels of oil every single day.
To make up the 19 million barrel increase the world will witness in the next 10 years, we'll need to find the equivalent of 1.96 Saudi Arabias.
Where will we find those Saudi Arabias?
Dear reader, the jig is up.
But I have even more good news.
You see, by 2025, the world is expected to consume 119 million barrels of oil. That's a net gain in consumption of 35 million barrels. To make up the difference, we'll need to find the equivalent of 3.6 new Saudi Arabias.
The result will be bowel-shaking oil price shocks.
This, from Life After the Oil Crash:
The coming oil shocks won't be so short-lived. They represent the onset of a new, permanent condition. Once the decline gets under way, production will drop (conservatively) by 3% per year, every year.
That estimate comes from numerous sources, not the least of which is Vice President Dick Cheney himself. In a 1999 speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney stated:
By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.That means by 2010 we will need on the order of anadditional 50 million barrels a day.
Cheney's assesement is supported by the estimates of numerous non-political, retired, and now disinterested scientists, many of whom believe global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline within the next five years. Those still inside the industry sounding the alarm the loudest are anything but your classic "chicken-littles." Andrew Gould, CEO of the giant oil services firm Schlumberger, recently explained the global decline rate may be far higher than previously thought:
An accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption.
An 8% yearly decline would cut global oil production by a whopping 50% in under nine years. If a 5% cut in production caused prices to triple in the 1970s, what do you think a 50% cut is going to do?
Other experts are predicting decline rates as high as 10%-to-13%. Some geologists expect 2005 to be the last year of the cheap-oil bonanza, while many estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate "a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007," which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning around 2008-2012.
The long-term ramifications of Peak Oil on your way of life are nothing short of mind blowing. As we slide down the downslope slope of the global oil production curve, we may find ourselves slipping into what some scientists are calling a "post-industrial stone age."
Do I have your attention now?
Slouching Toward Energy Armageddon
Okay, so it's not all that bad.
But consider this...
Oil only lasts as long as we find layers of prehistoric carbon beneath the earth's surface. The less we have, the deeper we dig, and the more precious each drop becomes.
Unlike the traditional correlation between supply and demand, as demand for fossil fuels increases, supply will only decrease. This inverse relationship threatens every world economy with transportation meltdowns, production collapses, and general anarchy.
It also promises to make a fortune for those who are wise enough to take an active part in history's most crucial resource battle, as experts say the cost of finding crude oil could rise by up to 60% a barrel by 2010 to nearly $100 a barrel.
I think they have it wrong. I think oil is headed over $150... to maybe as high as $200 a barrel in the next decade. And I plan to position myself and my readers for spectacular profits in the process.
This is why I created Energy Daily.
Everyone Squeeze!
I once saw Superman take a lump of coal and squeeze it in his fist so hard that he turned the lump of carbon into a beautiful diamond. If it were that simple to replicate time's effects, the US oil industry would not have reaped record profits in 2005!
But there is a squeeze going on, and we all know who feels the tightest pressure of all - consumers. That is why soaring gasoline prices threaten to choke our disposable income and, by consequence, the entire economy.
In addition to the geological facts of dwindling fossil fuel availability, there is also the massive pressure of geopolitical change in oil producing nations.
In the oil-rich Middle East, Al-Qaeda terrorist leaders have issued a specific 12-page target list to their minions, commending them to take out oil and gas installations throughout the West and the Middle East.
The communiqué highlights the US, Afghanistan, central Asian states, and of course Iraq for destruction in order to cripple the American economy through its dependence on foreign oil.
Iran, which is not an Arab state but whose standoffish nature with the United States has long been a cause for concern on these shores, has finally broken the European camel's back with its insistence on uranium enrichment.
Iran's nuclear ambition rings with a heavy and ominous tone to those who know that the seat of Khomeini's Islamic Revolution is also OPEC's #2 producer of oil.
But It's Not All Fossils...
If you want to make money in the energy game, you can look down to the deepest oil wells, or up to the innovative machinery that will surge in profitability and efficiency as peak oil supply becomes a thing of the past.
Think energy-saving glass, windows that contain solar cells to make skyscrapers self-sufficient, and vertical wind turbines that will harvest the whipping breezes of coastal islands and inland plains.
Innovation is the key to energy-driven prosperity and profits for those who learn about the newest, most promising technology.
At Energy Daily, we'll bring you the latest and greatest developments in our quest for another cheap, abundant and efficient energy source as we say goodbye to oil.
Whether it's turning coal into liquid fuel, cold fusion or some carbon-based nanotechnology energy application, Energy Daily will be right there, giving our opinion. and profiting.
Please join me in what I've been calling the "greatest investment event of a lifetime."
Profitably yours,
Michael Schaefer
Envoyé par bass28
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