U.S. government policies in the second Trump administration are having their desired effect on the rate of EV adoption in the United States. Indeed, A new analysis by BloombergNEF now forecasts only 17-percent EV adoption by 2030, down sharply from the 47.4-percent forecast just two years ago.
By EV, we should point out, the agency means fully electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Those behind the new Bloomberg report write that when it comes to the why of the steady and drastic drop in its projections over the past couple of years, there’s little mystery: “Full withdrawal of federal regulatory support for electrification in the U.S. is the biggest factor.”
Recall that the U.S. Congress let the existing $7,500 EV tax credit available to U.S. consumers lapse last year. That earned the most attention as a strategy employed by the Trump administration in its self-declared war on EVs, and there’s no doubt the loss of the credit had an immediate and strong dampening effect on sales of plug-in vehicles.
That wasn’t the end of the government’s efforts, however. 2025 also saw fuel economy regulations gutted, removing any incentives carmakers had to build and market fuel-efficient vehicles in the U.S.
As well, the U.S. Senate last year removed the ability of the state of California to set its own emissions rules governing what vehicles could be driven in the state. The removal of the so-called California waiver meant that automakers were freed from hitting certain emissions targets leading up to 2035.
Harder to quantify but also hard to ignore has been the politicization in the United States of vehicle electrification and the goal of reducing oil dependence.
Those automakers thus entered 2026 faced with few if any incentives to develop greener vehicles, matched with dropping demand for plug-in electric vehicles. Several global automakers, faced with cost-cutting imperatives due to a number of challenges striking the industry worldwide, have veered away from electrifying their lineups in North America, especially within the U.S. specifically.
Among the all-electric models recently pulled from the U.S. market, we count the Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 6, Volkswagen ID.4 and Volvo EX30, not to mention the much ballyhooed Ford F-150 Lightning. Other automakers cancelled ambitious and expensive plans to launch lines of all-electric vehicles (see: Honda and its 0 Series).
Stellantis cancelled the plug-in electric versions of its Jeep Wrangler and Chrysler Pacifica, showing that even combustion engine models were vulnerable to the changing trends if they had the misfortune of having electric motors as well.
Meanwhile, over in Europe and Asia, government regulations regarding emissions and powertrains have continued to remain in place and are becoming ever more stringent. By 2030, it’s expected there will be a massive gulf between levels of EV adoption in the U.S. and in much of the rest of the world.