After much uncertainty, recent court decisions in the U.S. could finally offer the North American automotive industry a glimmer of hope regarding long-term trade policy. Suppliers, whose investments have been hampered, are hoping for lasting clarification of the rules, as the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) looms in 2026.
An industry on hold
Among the court decisions that could help clarify matters for those concerned is a U.S. Court of International Trade ruling, delivered on May 28, which declared certain tariffs imposed by Trump illegal, including those related to retaliation against drug trafficking. Although these tariffs have been temporarily reinstated on appeal, the judicial process could help better define the parts targeted by different types of customs duties.
A headache for suppliers
During a live discussion organized by Automotive News, several experts described a paralyzed investment environment. Between tariff uncertainties, delays in bringing new models to market, and shifts towards electrification, suppliers are unsure what to invest in, and where.
For Rodrigo Contreras of Martinrea International, a Canadian company, "this element of uncertainty must be resolved quickly." Doubt about future trade rules affects the entire supply chain, from the manufacturing of door handles to electronic control units.
The USMCA: A fragile bulwark
If the industry has so far avoided the worst, it's thanks to the exemptions provided by the USMCA. Parts and vehicles that comply with regional content and labour rules can still circulate freely without customs duties. And that has limited price increases and production disruptions.
But everything could change from July 1, 2026, the official review date of the agreement. For Collin Shaw, president of MEMA (which represents American suppliers), it’s crucial that "changes to the USMCA allow the supply chain to remain economically viable." According to him, each auto part has its own production logic, sometimes more efficient in Mexico, sometimes in Canada or the United States.
Looking ahead
Even if the judicial path promises to be long, experts agree: commercial stability is essential to restore confidence in business decisions. And although the Trump administration still views tariffs as a negotiating tool, the industry hopes that the rules will become more predictable, to finally be able to plan coherently for the future.