According to several economists and auto industry experts, prices for Japanese-built vehicles will likely rise in the coming weeks. That's because earthquake-related plant shutdowns are reducing supply while demand remains steady.
Consumers will start to feel the crunch at the end of this month and into April, and the length of any price spike will depend on how quickly, and how completely, the Japanese auto industry can get back on line, analysts and dealers said.
As cars inch closer to their MSRPs, potential buyers will have little to no negotiating power when shopping for such models as the Toyota Prius, Honda Insight and CR-V, Subaru Forester and Impreza as well as premium models from Acura and Infiniti, for instance.
There is about a 60-day supply of the Prius in the U.S., but TrueCar.com analyst Jesse Toprak expects that to drop rapidly as consumers snap up the model because of higher gas prices.
Toyota Motor Corp. recently said that "the company is making every effort to minimize any long-term impact on Prius availability'', adding that one of the three factories where Prius batteries are made sustained damage but that the remaining plants were unscathed. Production is scheduled to resume today, March 22.
Meanwhile, Subaru models already have inventories of less than 30 days, and that's making dealers nervous.
"We are very concerned", said April Somers, general sales manager of Timmons Subaru in Long Beach, California. "Subaru was getting them here as fast as they could and we were selling them real quick. Probably prices will rise."
She claims the dealership has enough vehicles for a couple of weeks, "but we will really feel this in 30 days".
IHS Automotive, an industry research firm, estimates that as many as 185,000 vehicles were not built in the week following the quake and that number will continue to grow. March is typically the biggest month for Japanese auto production.
Based on a daily loss of 37,000 cars and trucks, IHS predicts a shortage of 335,000 units by Friday and up to 450,000 by the end of the month.
David Sullivan, a product analyst with the consulting firm AutoPacific, believes the demise of the smallest supplier could have a ripple effect through the entire industry in Japan. ''The lack of a single part can shut down an entire assembly line'', he insisted.
The supply chain impact of the quake is the biggest concern for automakers at this point.
Another issue is electrical power. Japan is going through rolling power cuts that will continue at least until the end of April, officials of the Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.
Car factories and semiconductor plants use lots of electricity and don't like power interruptions, Sullivan added. For example, the ovens in a paint shop can take as long as 10 hours to reach the correct temperatures.
Sources : The Detroit News, Detroit Free Press
Consumers will start to feel the crunch at the end of this month and into April, and the length of any price spike will depend on how quickly, and how completely, the Japanese auto industry can get back on line, analysts and dealers said.
As cars inch closer to their MSRPs, potential buyers will have little to no negotiating power when shopping for such models as the Toyota Prius, Honda Insight and CR-V, Subaru Forester and Impreza as well as premium models from Acura and Infiniti, for instance.
There is about a 60-day supply of the Prius in the U.S., but TrueCar.com analyst Jesse Toprak expects that to drop rapidly as consumers snap up the model because of higher gas prices.
Toyota Motor Corp. recently said that "the company is making every effort to minimize any long-term impact on Prius availability'', adding that one of the three factories where Prius batteries are made sustained damage but that the remaining plants were unscathed. Production is scheduled to resume today, March 22.
Meanwhile, Subaru models already have inventories of less than 30 days, and that's making dealers nervous.
"We are very concerned", said April Somers, general sales manager of Timmons Subaru in Long Beach, California. "Subaru was getting them here as fast as they could and we were selling them real quick. Probably prices will rise."
She claims the dealership has enough vehicles for a couple of weeks, "but we will really feel this in 30 days".
IHS Automotive, an industry research firm, estimates that as many as 185,000 vehicles were not built in the week following the quake and that number will continue to grow. March is typically the biggest month for Japanese auto production.
Based on a daily loss of 37,000 cars and trucks, IHS predicts a shortage of 335,000 units by Friday and up to 450,000 by the end of the month.
David Sullivan, a product analyst with the consulting firm AutoPacific, believes the demise of the smallest supplier could have a ripple effect through the entire industry in Japan. ''The lack of a single part can shut down an entire assembly line'', he insisted.
The supply chain impact of the quake is the biggest concern for automakers at this point.
Another issue is electrical power. Japan is going through rolling power cuts that will continue at least until the end of April, officials of the Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.
Car factories and semiconductor plants use lots of electricity and don't like power interruptions, Sullivan added. For example, the ovens in a paint shop can take as long as 10 hours to reach the correct temperatures.
Sources : The Detroit News, Detroit Free Press