The electric vehicle market is hitting a serious roadblock in the U.S. According to a preliminary analysis from J.D. Power, electric vehicle deliveries there are expected to fall by 43 percent in October 2025 compared to last year. The big culprit? The end of the $7,500 federal tax credit, effective September 30.
Market share in freefall
Retail sales of electric vehicles are estimated at 54,673 units in October, representing a market share of 5.2 percent, compared to 8.5 percent a year earlier. In September, the share had temporarily jumped to 12.9 percent due to last-minute purchases before the credit expired.
This massive new drop is pulling down the entire passenger vehicle market. J.D. Power predicts an overall drop of 5.9 percent in retail sales to 1.05 million vehicles, and 6.9 percent in total sales to 1.25 million.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales is expected to drop to 15.1 million units, compared to 16.3 million in September. Nearly one million that drop comes directly from the electric segment.
Automakers in salvage mode
Several automakers have cut their prices and increased discounts to compensate for the disappearance of the federal credit, thus helping to maintain some accessibility for EVs. Among them, Hyundai is offering a $7,500 USD rebate on its Ioniq 5 crossover, General Motors is maintaining its lease offers and Tesla is introducing more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y that are lighter on equipment.
The return of gasoline and hybrid engines
Analyst Karl Brauer of iSeeCars believes that the disappearance of the credit, combined with an easing of U.S. emissions standards, is pushing automakers to refocus on more profitable gasoline and hybrid models. While electric sales are declining, sales of gasoline vehicles and conventional hybrids are growing.
J.D. Power predicts that gas-engine models will account for 79 percent of sales, up 2.4 points, while hybrids will reach 14.2 percent, up 2 points.
Plug-in hybrids, meanwhile, would fall to 1 percent market share, a drop of 1.4 points. Like electric vehicles, they previously benefited from the federal tax credit.