If you take at fac value the many announcements that have been made by auto manufacturers and by different governments, no more new gasoline-powered vehicles will be sold by 2035. The goal is ambitious, to say the least. Some believe it is achievable, but others have serious doubts.
Behind the scenes, some manufacturers are telling us that it is simply unrealistic. Too much remains to be done in too little time. This week, Rivian boss R.J. Scaringe added his voice to those of the doubters. And he is in a good position to speak, since he is the head of a company dedicated to producing all-electric models business. His words are to be taken seriously.
Scaringe said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that the current semiconductor shortage is “a small appetizer to what we are about to feel on battery cells over the next two decade s.”
The executive believes that the tight timeline for shifting millions of personal vehicle sales from internal combustion engines to batteries will highlight the lack of preparedness of the entire EV battery supply chain, from mining to final product assembly.
He says that right now, “90 percent to 95 percent of the supply chain does not exist” to meet the goals that governments and OEMs have set for the next decade.
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The current state of electrified vehicle sales in the U.S. gives us a good idea of the challenges ahead for the industry. Last year, 5% of vehicle sales in the U.S. were hybrids and 3% were electric – both of those represent all-time highs. But even to reach those numbers, it has meant that demand for lithium-ion batteries has grown an average of 37 percent each year since 2015. The Wall Street Journal says that this year, the jump will be 50 percent.
Lithium is beginning to be called white gold, and many believe there may not be enough supply available to sustain the rapidly growing demand. The search for it could push companies to use extraction processes that are not environmentally friendly.
“A lot of us understand blowing up a mountain for coal mining is wrong; I think blowing up a mountain for lithium mining is just as wrong,” added Scaringe.
We can expect his declarations to fuel discussion. It’s worth noting they are consistent with the view of many manufacturers that a combination of technologies must be presented to consumers over the next few decades, not just one.
This is looking increasingly likely, in fact, especially since the combustion engine may not have said its last word with the development of synthetic gasoline.
Stay tuned.