Nearly a year after Elon Musk predicted that Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing service would “probably” cover half the U.S. population by the end of 2025, the reality on the ground paints a vastly different picture. As reported by Bloomberg, newly disclosed regulatory data shows that as of right now, Tesla’s entire operational robotaxi fleet stands at just 59 vehicles, limited to three Texas cities.
Musk assured investors in July 2025 that the company’s automated service would quickly spread from Austin to California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. By October, he escalated those claims, promising “500 or more” autonomous vehicles in Austin alone by the end of the year.
Things have not panned out quite so rosily. While loyalists and select investors have lauded the technology, the everyday user experience has been plagued by severe growing pains. Periodic testing of the Austin network reveals extensive wait times reaching up to 30 minutes, with the app frequently blocking bookings due to “high service demand.” As well, 30 percent of recorded rides still require human safety monitors behind the wheel to supervise the software.
The driverless rides themselves have struggled with real-world complexity. Numerous reports have made the rounds accusing Tesla’s autonomous vehicles of repeatedly missing designated pickup locations, dropping passengers off in narrow alleys rather than streetfronts and suffering system errors that completely prevented trips from initiating.
Musk recently attributed the delays to “paranoid” programming designed for maximum safety, noting that the AI can become paralyzed by impediments like construction zones, malfunctioning traffic lights and railroad crossings.
The result is that Tesla lags severely behind its established rivals. Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo currently operates over 600 autonomous vehicles registered in Texas alone; that’s nearly ten times the scale of Tesla's fleet. Feedback from users show that it is capable of seamlessly handling the precise drop-offs that continue to stump Tesla's software.
Industry analysts emphasize that the stakes of rushing unproven driverless tech are incredibly high. General Motors’ Cruise business was entirely sidelined following a severe pedestrian accident in late 2023, showcasing the immense regulatory and financial liabilities involved.
Tesla is currently investing millions to build out the unglamorous infrastructure needed to support a commercial fleet, filing permits for specialized “robocar” hub centres and automated car washes in Texas, Nevada and Arizona. However, with true driverless operations in California still revealing themselves to be entirely human-operated behind the scenes, experts predict it will be years before the robotaxi division meaningfully contributes to Tesla's bottom line. Musk has already conceded that the business will not turn a profit until at least 2027.