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2011 New York Auto Show: Big plans for big segments for big Nissan

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Mike Goetz
On Nissan pickups…
“Our share of the compact pickup market continues to grow. We’re pleased with the performance of the Frontier in the U.S. We’re almost back to the share we had 20 years ago… The domestics are actually helping us… They’re not doing well with compact trucks… We’ve announced that we’re developing a replacement for Titan in-house. All I can say right now is that we will have a more diverse line-up and broader powertrain line-up than we have today… More in line with the needs of the marketplace.”

On rising gas prices and vehicle selection…
“The top three variables in the U.S. are vehicle size, power and fuel economy. In around 2005/2006, for the first time in the U.S., two of those data points shifted — fuel economy finally became more important than power. Size is still up there by itself. Americans have big roads, big garages, big buses, big bodies. The 2008 fuel spike saw a big shift from V8 to V6 and down. At that time, there were no alternative powertrain choices in those sizes; they had to do go down a vehicle size. Americans continue to tell us that size is important. I think the emphasis will be more efficient powertrains in the vehicle sizes you see today.”

On small cars…
“We characterize the small car market as bi-modal — you have younger buyers and older buyers, who are empty nesters and/or on fixed incomes… We believe these lower segments will continue to grow. The challenge for automakers is to make sure they are profitable. Good thing for Nissan we’re not dependent on full-size trucks and SUVs, like some of the domestics. We are profitable with small cars. This (small car) shift in the marketplace is positive for Canada, because you guys have a little more of a European flair in your market. As we have more opportunity to get those vehicles for the U.S., there will be a ripple effect across the border.”

On cheaper minivans…

“The question on everyone’s mind is, ‘what's the next affordable alternative to minivan?’ Originally, minivan prices were lower than those of the average sedan. Now they average about $30,000. At some point you have to start bringing them down, so they are affordable to a young family. We’re looking at opportunities… A microvan, like a Ford Focus C-Max, would also align the U.S. business better with our global business.”

On future EV models…
Nissan identified five EVs, with three coming to North America: Leaf, an EV Infiniti and a commercial vehicle. “Is (the latter) exactly an electric version of our new NV2500? No. Is it in the class of the NV200? Yes. The two that aren’t coming to North America include one based on the Renault Twizy Concept, and the other is one that wouldn’t pass U.S. laws. Unlike Europe, we don’t have a mid-speed vehicle class; if this vehicle did come to the U.S. it would be limited to 25 mph, which would kill it. In Europe it could go 60 mph or more.

“We’re interested in expanding the Nissan EV lineup, with a sedan and some sort of MPV. We want to continue to be a leader in zero emission (technology). We’ve only announced three for North America so far, but are constantly looking at what should come next.”

On future EV demand…

“Third-party projections say EV demand globally could be as much as 10 percent by 2020; that’s over 9 million vehicles. We believe, like any other growing technology, that EV adoption will follow the hockey stick curve (slow ramp up, then a sudden and dramatic rise). The question is, ‘when will the dramatic part of the curve start?’ We believe that depends on oil, infrastructure, and on the number of OEMs in the market. We actually welcome more OEMs to come to market with their EVs, because it stimulates the debate and the growth of the segment.”
Mike Goetz
Mike Goetz
Automotive expert