And this is where GM comes in. As Fiat continues to lose money from slow sales, analysts are speculating that the industrial group's only escape will be to sell its 80% stake to General Motors in 2004.
The Agnelli's and Mediobanca would rather Fiat split off Alfa Romeo and merge it into Fiat's Ferrari-Maserati division and then sell off part or all of the new group, possibly to Germany's Volkswagen as reported earlier. But both Volkswagen and Fiat's controlling shareholder Ifi deny knowledge of such a scheme, which could end any chance of exercising the GM put option.
But it doesn't make sense for VW to seriously consider purchasing Fiat brands Ferrari, Maserati and Alfa Romeo. After all the German company already controls more top-tier brands than any other automaker, of which Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini and Bugatti are included.
No, Fiat will most likely be left with no other choice than to force GM into accepting its option clause, whether the American giant wants to or not. The crux is that this will only help the current creditors, and won't necessary have an immediate impact on Fiat's brands or their products. GM is in no condition to be investing in Europe when its own domestic car and truck lineup is in such dire straights.
But there might be one silver lining if GM does take over Fiat. They might kill Saturn and replace it with Alfa Romeo. That would be positive to all.