For 2009, global lithium (or lithium carbonate) consumption should amount to approximately 120,000 tons. By 2020, it could reach anywhere between 150,000 to 400,000 tons per year, believes Mr. Knoll.
By the way, according to Canada Lithium Corporation, 27 percent of the current global production is dedicated to batteries that power cell phones and laptops, among other devices. "That’s going to increase very quickly," warned Mr. Knoll.
He then added: "As you know, we’ve got lawnmowers and chain saws and cars that are coming with storage batteries. What we don’t know is accurately how much lithium is going to be used in all these different things. We don’t know how fast the storage battery is going to catch on. But what I do know is that I am expecting the annual increase in lithium consumption to be above 10 percent beyond 2010. And that is extremely high." (From 2001 to 2008, lithium demand increased by 7 percent annually.)
Shortage and dependence
Mr. Knoll foresees no shortage of lithium in the near future but rather the mining industry’s inability to meet global demand. "Mines take a long time to build and become operational, like 8 to 10 years," he explained.
Of course, there’s another question that should be asked: "Could we not be swapping dependence on one depleting natural resource, oil, for another? Analysis shows that a world dependent on lithium for its vehicles could soon face even tighter resource constraints than we face today with oil," said William Tahil, Research Director at Meridian International Research, an independent strategy research and technology consultancy based in the U.S.
Last January, the U.S. Geological Survey indeed released a study showing that barely 6 percent of global lithium supplies are found in American soil (about half in Canada). Meanwhile, China is reportedly home to 10 percent of those supplies. "And the Chinese haven’t announced every single thing they are doing," said Mr. Tahil.
Bolivia and Chile boast the largest lithium deposits in the world, combining for 65 percent of the global stock.
Naturally, it wouldn’t make much sense for the U.S. to swap their dependence on Middle East oil for a dependence on South America lithium. And God knows just how big lithium deposits are in China, incidentally the largest Li-ion battery manufacturer and exporter in the world.
By the way, according to Canada Lithium Corporation, 27 percent of the current global production is dedicated to batteries that power cell phones and laptops, among other devices. "That’s going to increase very quickly," warned Mr. Knoll.
He then added: "As you know, we’ve got lawnmowers and chain saws and cars that are coming with storage batteries. What we don’t know is accurately how much lithium is going to be used in all these different things. We don’t know how fast the storage battery is going to catch on. But what I do know is that I am expecting the annual increase in lithium consumption to be above 10 percent beyond 2010. And that is extremely high." (From 2001 to 2008, lithium demand increased by 7 percent annually.)
 |
| Toyota Prius Plug-in Concept |
Shortage and dependence
Mr. Knoll foresees no shortage of lithium in the near future but rather the mining industry’s inability to meet global demand. "Mines take a long time to build and become operational, like 8 to 10 years," he explained.
Of course, there’s another question that should be asked: "Could we not be swapping dependence on one depleting natural resource, oil, for another? Analysis shows that a world dependent on lithium for its vehicles could soon face even tighter resource constraints than we face today with oil," said William Tahil, Research Director at Meridian International Research, an independent strategy research and technology consultancy based in the U.S.
Last January, the U.S. Geological Survey indeed released a study showing that barely 6 percent of global lithium supplies are found in American soil (about half in Canada). Meanwhile, China is reportedly home to 10 percent of those supplies. "And the Chinese haven’t announced every single thing they are doing," said Mr. Tahil.
Bolivia and Chile boast the largest lithium deposits in the world, combining for 65 percent of the global stock.
Naturally, it wouldn’t make much sense for the U.S. to swap their dependence on Middle East oil for a dependence on South America lithium. And God knows just how big lithium deposits are in China, incidentally the largest Li-ion battery manufacturer and exporter in the world.